Increased military reliance on space is creating new threats and opportunities. Satellite systems have become crucial for communication, navigation and missile detection, providing accurate, real-time information.
At present, there are about 10,200 active satellites in orbit, with the US owning half of the estimated 630 military satellites in space. By 2030, the number of active satellites is expected to exceed 100,000 as the commercial sector undergoes rapid expansion. Increasing competition and congestion means the militarisation of space itself now seems inevitable, particularly as more and more countries take an interest in the potential for mining rare earths on the moon and other planets.
Already, grey-zone warfare, involving GPS jamming and cyberattacks, is a common tactic to disrupt military operations. Space-based weapons are in early development, and space supremacy may become the decisive factor in future conflicts. The cost of building and operating Washington’s Golden Dome programme, a layered air and missile defence architecture covering the US, combining interceptor systems, space-based sensors and directed-energy weapons, has been estimated at $1.2 trillion over 20 years.
Below we highlight some interesting technological developments in the space domain.
1. DIRECTED-ENERGY WEAPONS
Ground-based DEWs, using lasers or microwaves, are expected to become a core defence tool by the mid-2030s, able to disrupt communications and destroy enemy satellites, missiles and spacecraft.
2. KINETIC ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPONS
Several countries have already tested direct-ascent, kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. They would likely create clouds of debris, hampering spacecraft and satellites for decades.
3. 3D-PRINTED EQUIPMENT
3D-printers could be used to manufacture satellites and spare parts on space stations to reduce the time and cost of launching and maintaining satellites.
4. SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER
SBSP systems that beam microwave energy back to earth could become vital dual-use assets supporting military operations in remote locations.
5. FISSION SURFACE POWER
Compact fission reactors could generate electricity on the surface of the moon to support a long-term presence there.
6. INFLATABLE HABITATS
Testing is underway on inflatable modules that would allow humans to live in space beyond the confines of spacecraft.
7. CO-ORBITAL ASAT WEAPONS
Co-orbital ASAT weapons, kinetic or non-kinetic, are covertly deployed into orbit to lie in wait for long periods before engaging a target satellite. Co-orbital weapons could be dual-use in nature. For example, robotic arms, powered by AI and used for inspections, repair or refuelling, could be deployed for military purposes in counterspace operations to interfere with satellites.
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